Do you invest? - investment and wealth discussion thread

[Pladio]

Short explanation from ChatGPT:

DeepSeek has influenced stock markets due to its disruptive impact on the global AI and tech landscape. Here are the main reasons:

1. Competition in AI DevelopmenteepSeek's advanced large language models (LLMs), particularly the DeepSeek-R1, have been recognized for their efficiency and capability, directly challenging dominant players like NVIDIA, OpenAI, and other Western AI companies. This competition has created uncertainty about the future market share of these established firms.
2. Open-Source Approach:Unlike many Chinese AI companies, DeepSeek has adopted an open-source strategy, fostering innovation and collaboration. This has drawn significant attention from developers and businesses worldwide, potentially reshaping AI development ecosystems and altering market dynamics.
3. Market Valuation Concerns:If DeepSeek and similar companies successfully produce high-quality AI at lower costs, it could reduce the demand for specialized AI hardware, like NVIDIA GPUs, and other costly AI infrastructure. Investors in these hardware and software companies may have started reconsidering their valuations.
4. Tech Adoption and DownloadseepSeek's AI models have gained massive popularity globally, with high adoption rates on app stores. The rapid rise of DeepSeek is seen as a sign of how quickly tech dominance can shift, making investors wary of holding onto stocks in established companies facing new competition.
5. Geopolitical Tensions:The rise of a Chinese company like DeepSeek has geopolitical implications, as it indicates China's increasing competitiveness in AI technology. This has led to concerns in Western markets about long-term tech dominance and could influence regulations, partnerships, and investments.

In short, DeepSeek's emergence highlights a potential shift in the global tech power balance, creating both opportunities and risks for investors and sparking volatility in related sectors.

 

[largh]

Those claims sound like a hyperbole to me at the time of hyperbolic hyperbolism...Perhaps the market overreaction should not be a surprise, then. They still used 6 million $ to buy NVIDIA chips according to their claims, and published their model open source. Why should that be away from NVIDIA? Crypto market and the mainstream stock market share similar characteristics these days...

 

[JDR13]

The AI and technology stocks are free-falling due to the DeepSeek news this weekend: https://au.investing.com/news/stock...sday-for-ai-infra-bernstein-weighs-in-3641596

Weird.

Yeah, Nvida is getting hammered right now. Microsoft and Google getting hit hard too. Thankfully the latter isn't too bad. I own some shares there.

AI seems like it's going to be the next big race.

 

[Pladio]

Those claims sound like a hyperbole to me at the time of hyperbolic hyperbolism...Perhaps the market overreaction should not be a surprise, then. They still used 6 million $ to buy NVIDIA chips according to their claims, and published their model open source. Why should that be away from NVIDIA? Crypto market and the mainstream stock market share similar characteristics these days...

I'll send you an article from the Economist which explain the reasoning, but in short - the $6m is a tenth of what other models need and they did it with fewer chips and lower-performance ones.

 

[JDR13]

Nvidia ended up closing down 17% for the day. It was the biggest one-day loss in market value for any company ever.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nvidia-sheds-589-billion-in-market-cap-on-deepseek-concerns-most-in--history-3831096

 

[sakichop]

Nvidia ended up closing down 17% for the day. It was the biggest one-day loss in market value for any company ever.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nvidia-sheds-589-billion-in-market-cap-on-deepseek-concerns-most-in--history-3831096

Yep and I bought the dip. Already going back up. Of course bad news from the fed this week will make it drop again, but such is the market. I’m in for the long haul anyway. Nvidia and Palantir have been game changers for me.

 

[JDR13]

Yep and I bought the dip. Already going back up. Of course bad news from the fed this week will make it drop again, but such is the market. I’m in for the long haul anyway. Nvidia and Palantir have been game changers for me.

I've owned both Nvidia and Palantir in the past. Made a profit on both though I wouldn't call them game changers for me. I did well with Nvidia though.

I don't own a lot of tech stocks. I've got some Google, Apple, Cisco, Intel, and AMD, but that's about it as far as tech. I also have a Fidelity mutual fund that's mostly composed of software and IT related stuff.

I've started shifting more towards stocks with strong dividends and high-yield ETFs. Tech stocks tend not to pay much or any dividend.

 

[largh]

I was eyeing Palantir stocks before they were added to S&P500 but got scared away due to the high P/E value. Obviously, should have bought when I had the thought.

 

[JFarrell71]

You invested in Middle Earth scrying stones?

 

[largh]

You invested in Middle Earth scrying stones?

Global stock index fund and S&P 500 ETF Palantir is a software / AI / defense company (think of starting Militech). It's value is in the meme heights although they hardly earn money yet.

 

[sakichop]

Global stock index fund and S&P 500 ETF Palantir is a software / AI / defense company (think of starting Militech). It's value is in the meme heights although they hardly earn money yet.

Huh, it’s true Palantir’s P/E value is bananas but so are most AI stocks right now. However they make money hand over fist, are growing at a 20% year over year average and have no debt. Their books are impeccable.

 

[largh]

A heads-up: Trump adm. to introduce 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports later this week:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-announce-25-steel-214044159.html

Further speculation: this could lead to volatility in stock prices within that sector (companies relying on US export should decline, others increase), higher prices of these materials (or not if China exports to other countries overflow the market) and possibly higher consumer prices in the US (and inflation unless balanced somehow). Generally profitable for US producers, a mixed bag producers that do not export to the US (China steel & aluminium is expected to overflow the market) and unprofitable for the US consumers - at least in the short run.

Another source with relevant information: https://www.investing.com/news/comm...he-us-get-its-steel-and-aluminum-from-3858074

 

[notdart]

A heads-up: Trump adm. to introduce 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports later this week:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-announce-25-steel-214044159.html

Further speculation: this could lead to volatility in stock prices within that sector (companies relying on US export should decline, others increase), higher prices of these materials (or not if China exports to other countries overflow the market) and possibly higher consumer prices in the US (and inflation unless balanced somehow). Generally profitable for US producers, a mixed bag producers that do not export to the US (China steel & aluminium is expected to overflow the market) and unprofitable for the US consumers - at least in the short run.

Another source with relevant information: https://www.investing.com/news/comm...he-us-get-its-steel-and-aluminum-from-3858074

Yea right now in general it is dangerous to invest because each day Trump might announce something new and then reverse or change his direction the next day. One for example could bet on crypto and trump might announce usa will move in that direction and the next day he might decide they will go into gold instead. Tariffs are announced and you might plan on that happening but next week he might announce he is dropping them.... you just don't know.

 

[JDR13]

Further speculation: this could lead to volatility in stock prices within that sector (companies relying on US export should decline, others increase), higher prices of these materials (or not if China exports to other countries overflow the market) and possibly higher consumer prices in the US (and inflation unless balanced somehow). Generally profitable for US producers, a mixed bag producers that do not export to the US (China steel & aluminium is expected to overflow the market) and unprofitable for the US consumers - at least in the short run.

My shares of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc are up 19% already today.

 

[duerer]

Wanna go full retard? Go crypto.

 

[largh]

NVIDIA earnings report for 2024 is out. They earned more than expected, yet it seems that the stock price might go a bit down anyway. Investors are unpredictable hive-minded lemmings...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-earnings-outlook-top-wall-street-forecasts-as-ceo-jensen-huang-touts-light-speed-ai-advances-090009668.html

Any bets what's going to happen with the stock this week? Up or down? I bet first down, then up. That seems to be how it works with NVIDIA these days. That would be an investment opportunity, but I already have too much of these M7 stocks in various funds. Also, I expect a market decline in the US due to high stock pricing and Trump hassling with tariffs and global politics.

 

[largh]

Wanna go full retard? Go crypto.

Cryptos are just another asset class these days. Nothing more or less. As with any asset, you need to know what you are playing with. The near future in 2025 seems positive for cryptos, but again, one never knows. There's too little discussion about current mainstream cryptos not being quantum computer proof: one could crack the cryptography rendering crypto investments worthless with a future quantum computer. There are technologies that are quantum proof, and one can change the block chain with a majority vote, but I am not sure how proof-of-work, used by Bitcoin for example, would work with those technologies. I'd like to learn more about that aspect.

 

[JDR13]

NVIDIA earnings report for 2024 is out. They earned more than expected, yet it seems that the stock price might go a bit down anyway. Investors are unpredictable hive-minded lemmings...

Investors were used to Nvidia beating estimates by a larger margin, so it's natural that they were a little disappointed by the numbers this time. That said, it barely dipped after the announcement. No idea what's going to happen in the short term.

Also, I expect a market decline in the US due to high stock pricing and Trump hassling with tariffs and global politics.

That's already begun. Hard to tell what's going to happen though. It might just be a temporary pullback or it could be a larger correction. I'm ready either way or at least I like to think I am.

 

[JDR13]

The near future in 2025 seems positive for cryptos, but again, one never knows.

Yeah, I'm not that optimistic, but it depends what you mean by "near future". I think it might fall a bit further in the coming week(s) before rallying.

That might just be wishful thinking on my part though. I've been eyeing a couple of crypto ETFs, and I'm hoping for more of a pullback before I jump in.

 

[largh]

Yeah, I'm not that optimistic, but it depends what you mean by "near future". I think it might fall a bit further in the coming week(s) before rallying.

That might just be wishful thinking on my part though. I've been eyeing a couple of crypto ETFs, and I'm hoping for more of a pullback before I jump in.

I think like you. It's the time to buy before Trump adm. announces their crypto plans, but it's a bit of a gamble as no-one knows how low the crypto prices will drop before they should go up again. According to a trade analysis I heard, around 80k $ could be the bottom for Bitcoin, or then not. One issue is that Trump adm. was priced in already in November when Trump was elected and it's impossible to know what that means for the future. Prices can drop, but they can also just increase further. XRP ETFs might start in October this year possibly increasing the prices too. I think it's safer to assume that the prices will go up within 1-3 years perspective than down, so investing now and holding to them until toward the end of Trump adm. or longer could be a profitable idea. What ever you do, don't panic and go with FOMO. Cryptos are volatile. That's their nature. The most important thing to do is to do nothing when their value suddenly changes if you own them - buy when others sell and sell when others buy. Otherwise, you'll lose money. The fear-and-greed index on Coinmarketcap is what I use as an indicator. Anyway, I'd diversify between Bitcoin and XRP, possibly Solana too (although that is a different type of currency), unless you feel very adventurous. I'd not touch Etherium. There are cryptos that will give >10x wins, but knowing which ones out of thousands of alternatives seems difficult. The old trusty ones will not give >10x wins, but may give higher gains than S&P500 - and diversity your portfolio, which is why I play with them. The diversification is needed especially now during unstable times.