So, what's going on with the RPGs on this site?

[Moorkh]

Lately, I felt a bit odd, maybe even a little let down, when doing my daily check-up on the Watch. It seemed to me I'd be greeted by a glut of posts about games and events far from what I was looking for (or just expecting). JRPGs, TRPGs, ARPGs or more general items seemed to make up the majority.

Now my (Steam or otherwise) library proves I don't mind any of those genres at all, and I'm glad to be made aware of interesting developments in their area here or elsewhere. But I was sort of used to find a focus on coverage of (C)RPG in a stricter sense on the Watch. So, just to prove myself wrong, I checked out the last 160 or so postings (yeah, like I have too much time at my hands) and took note of the tags the Watch posters so kindly use:
RPG/DC: 48 (40, really, if I didn't count obvious misplacements such as Harvestella, Tower of Fantasy or weekly TB RPG roundups)
ARPG/shooter: 37 (I moved Fallouts, System Shocks and similar classics back into RPGs)
T/SRPG: 30
JRPG: 24
fringe RPG: 10
other posts: 12

So, I was proven wrong. Kinda. CRPGs still rule this site. And yet, it's hardly one in four posts, and some of that are retrospectives.
Is this just a function of the difficulty in labelling RPGs? Is it a mirror of today's RPG industry? A seasonal oddity? A bias in the choice of our (great and worthy) news posters?

What do my fellow Watchers think?

 

[Couchpotato]

A bit of bias on the part of the news-poster as it was talked about before.

Add the fact that western developers have become a little lazy, and risk averse. They seem to have been outpaced by eastern developers. It's taking longer to release games.

HiddenX had a good example.

I think the eastern RPG devs are simply much more productive than their western counterparts these days. Look at this current release list of Square Enix and compare it with the planned releases of Microsoft (inXile Entertainment, Obsidian Entertainment, Bethesda Game Studios...)

Also the classic CRPG was almost put on ice after the initial kickstarter wave. Sales showed they just don't sell as well. Look at PoE 2 vastly improved but sold poorly.

Notice there were exceptions but the industry is constantly changing.

Sadly it's mostly T/SRPG RPGs, JRPGs and RPG element games.

 

[HiddenX]

The RPG industry right now:

• Very few AAA classic western RPG releases
• Many J-RPG releases (AAA & AA)
• Many J-RPG re-releases for PCs
• Some Souls-like action RPG releases
• Some Life-Sim RPG releases
• Lots of tactical/strategy RPG releases
• Lots of rogue-likes with procedural generated content releases
• Some survival RPG releases
• quite a few deck-builders

Not a very good basic set to get interesting newsbits every day, if you are not at least a J-RPG fan or tactical RPG fan.

 

[Couchpotato]

Yep the problem is the market is being over-saturated with cheap indie games. Jeff Vogel of Spiderweb Software wrote a good article on this topic and in my recent interview.

There Are Too Many Video Games

Let's marinate in some hard truths. Dissect what is in front of our eyes.

bottomfeeder.substack.com

RPGWatch: On the topic of indie games I remember a time when you mentioned there were too many indie games. Has your opinion changed?

Jeff Vogel: There were over 11000 game releases in 2021 on Steam alone. The VAST majority of those games will go almost completely unplayed. For most of the indies that do find some success, if they suddenly vanished, players could immediately find a suitable substitute.

When most games aren't being played, there are too many by definition. Note that I'm talking entirely about games as a business. Hobbyist developers are doing their own thing. Once they try to sell their hobby games, though, they are entering a glutted market.

So of course there are too many games. I think the next recession is going to be a rough one, though I hope I am proved wrong.

 

[Moorkh]

Thanks for weighing in. It makes sense looking at triple-A titles, seeing as certain production values, the draw of eastern comic style graphics and passing hypes would reach a vastly broader public.
What surprises me is that there is no larger market for more traditional CRPGs in the area where S/TRPGs and smaller-scale ARPGs thrive. These are usually not of a lousy quality and have solid production values. And apparently a loyal customer base, gobbling up enough of the products seemingly releasing every couple weeks.
Are CRPGs, by nature, just that much more costly to develop? Is there simply not enough of a customer base, compared to similar genres? Or are visible failures simply scaring devs off of dabbling in CRPGs?

 

[Couchpotato]

Are CRPGs, by nature, just that much more costly to develop? Is there simply not enough of a customer base, compared to similar genres? Or are visible failures simply scaring devs off of dabbling in CRPGs?

You nailed it not a big enough customer base to sell to.

You're looking at 300,000 to at best 2,000,000 sales if you release a classic CRPG. That's enough sales for a small to mid size developer but not for a large studio.

Then add to the fact that recently RTwP seems to have become a second class citizen and hated on most RPG site nowadays. So that lessens your fan-base even more.

Take heart though some indie CRPGs are good and sell enough. As we still have Larian and Owlcat who continue to develop them as well as Atom RPG. So it's not all bleak yet.

 

[Moorkh]

You nailed it not a big enough customer base to sell to.

You're looking at 300,000 to at best 2,000,000 sales if you release a classic CRPG. That's enough sales for a small to mid size developer but not for a large studio.

Then add to the fact that recently RTwP seems to have become a second class citizen and hated on most RPG site nowadays. So that lessens your fan-base even more.

Take heart though some indie CRPGs are good and sell enough.As we still have Larian and Owlcat who continue to develop them as well. So it's not all bleak at least yet.

That poses two questions:
Do ARPGs and S/TRPGs really have a larger base (and where's that suddenly coming from/hiding out when not playing) in order to succeed?
Where are the developers doing those small- to mid-sized CRPGs when there's enough of a customer base for them?

 

[Couchpotato]

That poses two questions:
Do ARPGs and S/TRPGs really have a larger base (and where's that suddenly coming from/hiding out when not playing) in order to succeed?
Where are the developers doing those small- to mid-sized CRPGs when there's enough of a customer base for them?

Very good questions and you would have ask the suit who runs the publisher or the single person who manages the studio. Data and risk aversion is my guess to your questions.

 

[Drithius]

What surprises me is that there is no larger market for more traditional CRPGs in the area where S/TRPGs and smaller-scale ARPGs thrive. These are usually not of a lousy quality and have solid production values. And apparently a loyal customer base, gobbling up enough of the products seemingly releasing every couple weeks.
Are CRPGs, by nature, just that much more costly to develop? Is there simply not enough of a customer base, compared to similar genres? Or are visible failures simply scaring devs off of dabbling in CRPGs?

Well, as of June, one of the most recent, quintessential traditional RPGs, Wrath of the Righteous, had only sold 250k copies. That's pretty pitiful for such a standout standard-bearer. Pillars of Eternity 2 had similar numbers if memory serves correctly.

At this point, one must come to the realization that the consumer this site represents is part of an increasingly niche audience.

 

[HiddenX]

Action RPGs got a lot of new fans with the Souls-Like games. Tactical RPGs are easier to make and not so resource-hungry. They got a comeback with the smartphone-market.
I love tactical RPGs for my whole life, but nowadays I can't play every release, because there are so many of them.

 

[HiddenX]

Well, as of June, one of the most recent, quintessential traditional RPGs, Wrath of the Righteous, had only sold 250k copies. That's pretty pitiful for such a standout standard-bearer. Pillars of Eternity 2 had similar numbers if memory serves correctly.

At this point, one must come to the realization that the consumer this site represents is part of an increasingly niche audience.

The good thing is: The RPG genre changed a lot in the past and will change. And those declared dead live longer.
PC gaming was declared dead, turn-based combat was declared dead, dungeon crawlers were declared dead. All of these got a strong comeback.

 

[SpoonFULL]

Thanks to Moorkh, Couchpotato and HiddenX for this thread and replies. I was thinking about this as I have noticed that the majority of the posts here are on JRPG or related (Anime stuff). Its not only here, almost any release on Steam that has RPG tag is a JRPG (or a wanna be), Anime and/or turn-based. Even though other genres of RPG are released, they are normally swamped by the volume of JRPGs released every day. I guess this is the fashion now.

 

[Ripper]

TBH, although I only occasionally enjoy a JRPG, it seems to me that not only are there more of them, but quite a lot of fairly noteworthy examples. I've found that many of the more traditional cRPGs we see are horribly mediocre attempts at aping the past.

 

[HiddenX]

This is my current Steam-list: RPG - New and Trending:

Harvestella / Life Sim - covered
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord / Fighting Simulator - covered
Traha Global / MMO - not covered
Persona 5 Royal / J-RPG - covered
Dave the Diver / Action Game - not covered
Undecember / Multiplayer - not covered
Spellbook Demonslayers / Arena Shooter - not covered
Tower of Fantasy - Gacha / J-RPG - covered
Star Ocean The Divine Force / J-RPG - covered
Gotham Knights / Action Game - covered
Vampire Survivors / Bullet Hell - not covered
Torchlite: Infinite / Action Game - F2P - not covered
Brotato / Arena Shooter - not covered
DORAEMON STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of the Great Kingdom / Life Sim - not covered yet
CORAL ISLAND / Life Sim - not covered
Archmage Ricka / NSFW - not covered
Potionomics / Deckbuilding - not covered yet
Guild Wars 2 / MMO - not covered
PGA TOUR 2k23 / Simulation - not covered
Scarlet Tower / Roguelike - not covered yet
Lilith Odyssey / Survival Space Sim - not covered yet
Triangle Strategy / tactical RPG - covered
Gedonia / open world RPG - covered

So 4 potential new games for newsbits - 2 Sims, 1 Deck-Builder and 1 Rogue-like.
We can see that we have a lot of games with very few RPG elements here.

 

[Moorkh]

TBH, although I only occasionally enjoy a JRPG, it seems to me that not only are there more of them, but quite a lot of fairly noteworthy examples. I've found that many of the more traditional cRPGs we see are horribly mediocre attempts at aping the past.

Interesting. How so?
IMHO I'm much more likely to find a current JRPG/ARPG/TRPG to be generic, derivative or even trite. But then, I tend to focus on narrative/choices and world building/exploration. Combat mechanics-wise, things might be different.
Those few CRPGs I see usually try something new to put them apart from their inspirations - which does not always work out, alas.

Mind, I don't suffer from a dearth of CRPGs to play - there are just enough of them, and I do more than dabble in other genres, too. I don't feel like we have much choice to pick from, these days, though.
What's worse, probably, is that even though I abhor the mainstream, I also hate being sidelined and marginalised...

 

[JDR13]

I'm much more likely to find a current JRPG/ARPG/TRPG to be generic, derivative or even trite. But then, I tend to focus on narrative/choices and world building/exploration. Combat mechanics-wise, things might be different.

I agree at least with JRPGs. Thing is, that's what's being released in greater numbers which is why we're seeing them covered more.

I don't mind games like Elden Ring and Dragon's Dogma that are from Japanese developers. It's the heavily anime-influenced ones that I'm not a fan of, and unfortunately 90% of JRPGs seem to be that way.

 

[Ripper]

Interesting. How so?
IMHO I'm much more likely to find a current JRPG/ARPG/TRPG to be generic, derivative or even trite. But then, I tend to focus on narrative/choices and world building/exploration. Combat mechanics-wise, things might be different.
Those few CRPGs I see usually try something new to put them apart from their inspirations - which does not always work out, alas.

Mind, I don't suffer from a dearth of CRPGs to play - there are just enough of them, and I do more than dabble in other genres, too. I don't feel like we have much choice to pick from, these days, though.
What's worse, probably, is that even though I abhor the mainstream, I also hate being sidelined and marginalised...

I guess I'm looking at it in a way that's trying to be somewhat objective, or thinking across tastes, if you see what I mean. JRPGs are not really my bag, but it seems to me that over the last few years, there's been a good number that have been well-received by that community, and sold pretty well. And I've also enoyed a couple of them. Whereas, for me as a fan of Western RPGS, I feel it's been a drier period.

That's apples and oranges in the sense of comparing my response to a whole other market, but you get what I'm saying?

 

[JFarrell71]

I keep decent tabs on RPGs of all stripes and I've never felt like this site isn't talking about RPGs that are out or on their way so much as that those games don't exist (or are in such an early level of information that there's nothing to talk about, like with Avowed). I'd love to play more RPGs, and by extension talk about them, but they've been thin on the ground. The ones that are out or on the horizon, like Broken Roads, BG3 and Solasta have been covered in newbits and discussions fairly frequently on this site.

Among the JPG dedicated audience, 2022 is known as a year in which a ton of releases came out, so considering that and the dearth of western RPGs, it's only natural that we'd see a lot of announcements of those here. Next year, it could be entirely the other way around.

 

[HiddenX]

I rarely played J-RPGs before 2011. I learned to like them with titles like The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky, Valkyria Chronicles, Ara Fell, Vestaria Saga and others. They often feature tactical combat as well so I have more than enough games to play right now.

 

[Couchpotato]

Hopefully we get Starfield to play next year as I play Bethesda games for years.

We also have the Cyberpunk 2077 expansion, a new Dragon Age, Baldur's Gate 3, and we might get to play Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader. So it looks to get better.

Obsidian also has Outer Worlds 2 and Avowed but has been silent on both projects.