The War in America

I'm talking about the ones right after election where he threatened Canada and Mexico and then bailed out once they agreed to help with the immigration problem.
The problem is that there was no immigration problem to help with; esp on the canadian border. It was all bullshit like 99% of the things he sez and does. When Biden left office illegal crossings were near historical lows. We can see this as most people being deported are not criminal or causing mischief (though they are in the country 'illegally' and if not he revokes their visa so they are). You shoudl read up on some of the 'reasons' he uses for revoking a visa.... such as a driving ticket 20 years in ones past. Heck even being arrested and then released as non-guilty are grounds for visa being revoked under the trump administration and we won't even get into saying something he dislikes such as griping about cut grants for research.
 
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I wonder when the price increases will start really messing up the lives of the working and middle class in the US?

Maybe cars will become luxury products?
 
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I don't think Trump cares about the lives of the working and middle class at all. He just need them as gullible voters (German: 'Stimmvieh' = English: 'voting cattle').
 
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Tariffs are bad for every nation.(n)

  • Taiwan president proposes zero tariffs as basis for US trade talks
  • President says Taiwan won't retaliate against US tariffs
  • Taiwan will buy more from the US, president says
  • US is Taiwan's most important international partner
 
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The S&P 500 index, which measures general value of American economy through weighted average value of 500 largest stock exchange listed companies, dropped more than ever before in two days after the announcement of Trump tariffs beating the Covid Crisis in 2020 and the Banking Crisis in 2007. Obviously the starting point was also higher, so the comparison is not entirely objective, but this is likely only a start and some analysts expect the decline to continue some time until the situation clears up through eventual negotiations and the index will start to increase again. From history one can see that the index took less than a year to recover from the Covid Crisis, but other drops have had longer recovery times anything from two years to a decade. Since this crisis is unparalleled in the history and influenced by politics, it can be extra difficult to predict how long the recovery will take. @blatantninja, would you have a take on this since you are working in the finance?

Anyone concerned for their savings or retirement funds?

Since I still have many years to retirement and only invest money I will not need in close foreseeable future, I am not that worried about the drop, but am annoyed at myself that I did not do as Buffett and kept some of my savings to be invested as cash so that I could benefit from this drop. Why is it so difficult to listen to people who know things better than I do? The Buffett move was in the news for months before this happened, although that guy has a tad more eddies to play with than I do...

1744005156035.png


Source: https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-chart
 
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  • Taiwan president proposes zero tariffs as basis for US trade talks
  • President says Taiwan won't retaliate against US tariffs
  • Taiwan will buy more from the US, president says
  • US is Taiwan's most important international partner
It will be interesting to see whether that laying flat strategy will pay off. Taiwan is one of the main strategic reasons for Trump tariffs (trying to move the semiconductor production from geopolitically volatile region to the US where the production can be better controlled and protected) as far as I have undersood.
 
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75% of researcher respondents consider leaving the US due to Trumps politics:


Of course, there's likely selection bias in who answers and the actual number of people who would actually move is much lower than who would consider it. But it is still a sign of how Trump's politics risks causing a brain drain.

NIH funding has been critical in a lot of research and the gutting of them is a huge blow for American (and therefore global) science.
 
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Their collective concerns are certainly valid. I'm simply hoping that common sense might prevail here with these new tariffs and such, yet that's likely a silly pipe dream of mine. Things are much more likely to get far worse, and soon at that.
 
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Hmmmm, isn't it interesting that numerous countries are already racing to the negotiating table. Perhaps, as Trump noted on Inauguration night, these nations realize that they need us far more than we need them. Also interesting that, after the lefties and legacy media convinced everyone the End Days were here for about a week, the stock market has largely levelled out and started a slow uptick. Lot less reporting about that little detail...imagine that.

The gameplan was never going to make us any friends, but it appears to be moving in the direction of good business. China's going to be a tough nut to crack, with tariffs or otherwise, but that was always the case and always expected to continue. Biden certainly did nothing to address it since his kid was on China's payroll.
 
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Hmmmm, isn't it interesting that numerous countries are already racing to the negotiating table. Perhaps, as Trump noted on Inauguration night, these nations realize that they need us far more than we need them. Also interesting that, after the lefties and legacy media convinced everyone the End Days were here for about a week, the stock market has largely levelled out and started a slow uptick. Lot less reporting about that little detail...imagine that.

The gameplan was never going to make us any friends, but it appears to be moving in the direction of good business. China's going to be a tough nut to crack, with tariffs or otherwise, but that was always the case and always expected to continue. Biden certainly did nothing to address it since his kid was on China's payroll.
I think you are rather confused; many of the Trump imposed tariffs are unjust and are form of bullying or blackmail. Asking Europe to buy 350 billion in energy is insane and they won't do it. Canada Tariff were for the most part unjust and pointless bullying. Probably to an extent the tariff on china was reasonable (though perhaps not the extent levied) and did you notice that NO tariff was placed on Russia - not even a token one while very large tariff were placed on vietnam (and numerous similar countries) not to mention a deserted island (if we ignore the penguins)...
 
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Also interesting that, after the lefties and legacy media convinced everyone the End Days were here for about a week, the stock market has largely levelled out and started a slow uptick. Lot less reporting about that little detail...imagine that.
Um...no. I guarantee we haven't seen the bottom of the markets yet.
 
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Some rich republican donors have become worried now that their promise child has gone too far. Take for example this Charles Koch guy who seems somewhat pissed that the well being of his business empire is at stake due to latest tariffs.


Funny how everyone keeps backing Trump and his insane policies untill they realize that it hurts themselves as well.
 
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Some rich republican donors have become worried now that their promise child has gone too far. Take for example this Charles Koch guy who seems somewhat pissed that the well being of his business empire is at stake due to latest tariffs.

Funny how everyone keeps backing Trump and his insane policies untill they realize that it hurts themselves as well.
No, Koch has been against Trump for a decade.



 
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Market reactions are certainly used as an argument to justify pretty much any political point of view, but these arguments are often rather one sided and purposefully isolated from the larger picture. One would hope that Bessent and co will manage to reign Trump to their original economic strategy once he has blown off some steam with his counter-counter-tariff cockfight.

For what it's worth, under is a link to an opinion piece by a former Trump advisor John Bolton. One certainly gets an impression of a classical narcissistic personality, which has been confirmed by pretty much all information we have received of him.

 
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Hmmmm, isn't it interesting that numerous countries are already racing to the negotiating table. Perhaps, as Trump noted on Inauguration night, these nations realize that they need us far more than we need them. Also interesting that, after the lefties and legacy media convinced everyone the End Days were here for about a week, the stock market has largely levelled out and started a slow uptick. Lot less reporting about that little detail...imagine that.

The gameplan was never going to make us any friends, but it appears to be moving in the direction of good business. China's going to be a tough nut to crack, with tariffs or otherwise, but that was always the case and always expected to continue. Biden certainly did nothing to address it since his kid was on China's payroll.
Levelling off ?
1744189455484.png

Not sure how dropping is levelling off, but sure.

Also, the tariffs make no sense. Of course countries are racing to negotiate something, because they're moronic.


The best example I've seen is Madagascar - they export vanilla to the US. They are extremely poor, so obviously they export more to the US than vice versa.
So they got hit by crazy tariffs. What does Trump think will happen ? Madagascar will start importing hi-tech weapons to level the trade deficit ?

No, what will happen is that vanilla will now be more expensive for US consumers. Amazing ! 47% tariffs even....
 
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I wonder whether the Trump cabinet will collapse to internal arguments or whether Trump will flex with his tariff cockfight eventually :unsure: I don't think any of them suggested that high, poorly allocated and unjustified tariffs. As far as I understood, the goal is to settle on 10% average level. It was 22% or something before the increase on China tariffs yesterday. 10% average tariffs would cover some 1/5 of the US budget deficit according to some models (but modelling these things is difficult because no-one knows where the tariffs settle eventually). Everything beyond the 10% average is Trump show, not planned, and apparently not controlled by anyone according to analysts I have listened to. The aim with this tariff overkill was to shock countries to negotiate unfavourable deals as well as to shock the stock market to make FED cut the interest rate, reduce oil price and weaken dollar. All of those are listed as their economic goals in their strategy to the strengthen US economy. That's at least what the most neutral and trustworthy analysts I have listened to say.
 
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China just announced 84% tariffs on US goods, in retalliation for Trump's 104% tariffs. Isn't it lovely when an ego-driven clown scuttles the world's economy? Unfortunately, you can't simply declare bankruptcy this time around, Donald.
 
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