Another earth-shattering KABOOM from North Korea

[Alrik Fassbauer]

The head of North-Korea more & more reminds me of Ernst Stavro Blofeld.

 

[Squeek]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/05/29/nkorea.missile/index.html

Now there is activity at a long range missile site! Huzzah!

That satellite imagery is really something, isn't it? Very impressive. Maybe the vehicles they're identifying are the mobile weapons labs they identified in Iraq, the ones that went missing (you never know).

 

[Rithrandil]

I can't tell if you're being facetious or not, but I'll assume you aren't.

Are you saying that if something is interpreted (whether purposefully or not) incorrectly once, it makes that tool worthless? I'm sure the Department of Defense would love to hear your theory on why satellite imagery is not a useful tool and why Key Hole and other systems should be mothballed.

 

[hishadow]

A researcher who had recently visited the country claimed it's mostly power projection and probably crazy Kim making his stand in relation to internal politics. The ruling class in North Korea apparently live like western millionaires and they presumably want to keep it that way.

 

[dteowner]

I think you missed it, Rith (or maybe I am). I think Squeek's saying that possibly some of the stuff used in the Iraq justification wasn't complete BS. Maybe, after we spotted them, Saddam sold them to the DPRK. Sure, it's a long reach, but I do enjoy reminding folks that Saddam and his cronies didn't line all the stuff up in downtown Baghdad for us to count, which I think is the angle Squeek's playing as well.

 

[Rithrandil]

Well, they're trucks that move Taepodong-II missiles according to the BBC version of that report.

 

[Squeek]

Sorry, I keep forgetting to argue. My point was simply to poke a little fun at our recent very public use of satellite imagery and how that turned out.

Draw your own conclusions, of course.

PS. I believed the case that was made for the mobile weapons labs. Now not so much.

 

[Prime Junta]

I think you missed it, Rith (or maybe I am). I think Squeek's saying that possibly some of the stuff used in the Iraq justification wasn't complete BS. Maybe, after we spotted them, Saddam sold them to the DPRK. Sure, it's a long reach, but I do enjoy reminding folks that Saddam and his cronies didn't line all the stuff up in downtown Baghdad for us to count, which I think is the angle Squeek's playing as well.

Nah, I think he just used his invisibility ray on them, then cloned himself, hid the clone in a hole in the ground, had a total make-over, and is now running North Korea.

 

[dteowner]

See, now you're thinking. I'd certainly give Sherwin Williams a call to see if they got any bulk orders of sand-colored paint shipping to Iraq around that time.

 

[Squeek]

See, now you're thinking. I'd certainly give Sherwin Williams a call to see if they got any bulk orders of sand-colored paint shipping to Iraq around that time.

I can't tell if you're being facetious or not, but I'll assume you aren't.

OK, seriously, next time I'll add a wink to remove any doubt that I'm joking.

 

[dteowner]

On the specific course of action, yes, I'm being silly. On the overall belief that, just because we didn't find anything doesn't mean that there's nothing to be found, I'm very serious.

 

[Squeek]

...just because we didn't find anything doesn't mean that there's nothing to be found....

That's true, and I can respect that. But I can't wait till the brain cells in my head that retain the memories of all that die. The whole thing was and is a nightmare.

Las Vegas is proof that, as a group, people struggle to understand probabilities. The way I see it, misunderstanding and mischaracterizing probabilities is the world's greatest religion.

You know what they say: There are three kinds of people in this world, the kind who understand numbers and the kind who don't.

Oh...

 

[bkrueger]

On the overall belief that, just because we didn't find anything doesn't mean that there's nothing to be found, I'm very serious.

In a very theoretical way this is true but means that no claim in the world can ever be 100 % proven or disproven.

In the specific situation you are referring to I would state the following rule:

Making a mistake is bad. Not admitting the mistake is worse.
It ruins future credibility much more then the original mistake.

 

[dteowner]

It's not like Saddam had a tour guide for this stuff. He hid it when he was using it. He hid it, knowing countries with advanced satellite technology were looking. But evidently, we're oh so much smarter than him that we're perfectly certain we found everything there was to find. Forgive me if I don't share that confidence.

 

[Rithrandil]

I find it far more likely that Saddam didn't have any WMD but he kept acting as if he did to trick Iran into believing he was much stronger than he actually was. He probably assumed we wouldn't attack him or that at most we'd launch a few bombing runs.

 

[Rithrandil]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ac_iB6ehphjs&refer=asia

According to this article, China just suspended government exchanges with the DPRK. Crazy! Maybe they ARE really pissed about this.

 

[Prime Junta]

Sure looks like it. Let's see what happens next; I'm a bit worried that if the DPRK feel like they're backed into a corner, they'll pull off something colossally stupid. What was it that Sun Tzu said about never blocking off your enemy's retreat route?

 

[dteowner]

Gotta wonder if this is another "fence lean" from China, though. Seems like a more stout response than usual, so perhaps the Chinese really are picking a side for once.

 

[magerette]

There's nothing like a nuclear explosion to clarify people's feelings.

I'm curious as to whether the global financial climate isn't contributing also, both to North Korea's miltarism, because I'm sure if they were'nt doing well before, things are even worse now and South Korea looks like a three course dinner to a starving man, and to China's response, as perhaps North Korean trade and commerce are not all that rewarding when stacked against further destabilization in the area.

 

[Zaleukos]

I suspect China would value SK and Japan (or Taiwan for that matter) as much more important partners than NK if it only boiled down to economics. The smallest and poorest country in the region is just not very useful as a trading partner. North Korea mainly has a use as a threatening decoy, distracting the rest of the world, but if Kim does something too crazy his utility is diminished. They probably dont want his regime to collapse either as that probably would cause a wave of refugees into China.

As for the Northern motivation it is very hard to tell. I'd guess that they want attention and another opportunity to blackmail the world into sending some aid, or possibly want to market their weapons technology (as said that is their main source of hard currency). In the second case they really underestimate how unhappy the world is about nuclear proliferation. That would of course still be a good deal saner than contemplating a war against the south...