Expectations for President Obama

[Prime Junta]

So much for bipartisanship: the stimulus bill passed in the House -- against *unanimous* Republican opposition. Despite the fact that Obama watered it down with those tax cuts and actively courted the opposition.

From where I'm at, this means that the Republicans effectively locked themselves out and threw away the key: they told Obama that it doesn't matter whether or how he reaches out to them, they're against him. There's only one rational response to that -- ignore them. Expect legislation that's a lot more leftist to follow. I for one hope that he'll scrap the tax cuts altogether and spend it all on fiscal stimulus.

[ http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OBAMA_ECONOMY?SITE=NDBIS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT ]

 

[Benedict]

I'm not 100% sure on the political process in the states so any clarification greatly appreciated - my (possibly wrong) understanding is that getting through the house of representatives just requires a straight majority, whereas getting through the senate requires 60-40 to block a filibuster?

So presumably the real acid test of whether his bipartisan approach does any good would be in the senate where he doesn't have the majority needed to just do whatever the hell he wants? In which case the republican vote here is largely symbolic, and is just a way of them having it on record that they protested so that when the spending cuts / tax rises / debt repayment starts they can play the blame game unhindered.

 

[txa1265]

From where I'm at, this means that the Republicans effectively locked themselves out and threw away the key: they told Obama that it doesn't matter whether or how he reaches out to them, they're against him.

I was impressed that he didn't use the opportunity to piss on them the way Bush (and Clinton) would have ...

 

[Benedict]

first obama air strike. 18 dead already, you're not a proper president unless you've racked up more deaths than you've had days in office.

 

[Prime Junta]

I'm not 100% sure on the political process in the states so any clarification greatly appreciated - my (possibly wrong) understanding is that getting through the house of representatives just requires a straight majority, whereas getting through the senate requires 60-40 to block a filibuster?

So presumably the real acid test of whether his bipartisan approach does any good would be in the senate where he doesn't have the majority needed to just do whatever the hell he wants? In which case the republican vote here is largely symbolic, and is just a way of them having it on record that they protested so that when the spending cuts / tax rises / debt repayment starts they can play the blame game unhindered.

That's it, pretty much. Put another way, the Reps could have opted to attempt to shape Obama's agenda to the limited extent their power currently allows, while also taking a limited share of responsibility for it; they chose to shout from the sidelines and score cheap political points with populist rhetoric instead. The House Reps are a very shrill bunch now that all the moderates were voted out (and replaced with Democrats); it looks like this is a good sign of things to come.

But IMO it does not bode well for the long-term health of the American system.

 

[Benedict]

That's it, pretty much. Put another way, the Reps could have opted to attempt to shape Obama's agenda to the limited extent their power currently allows, while also taking a limited share of responsibility for it; they chose to shout from the sidelines and score cheap political points with populist rhetoric instead. The House Reps are a very shrill bunch now that all the moderates were voted out (and replaced with Democrats); it looks like this is a good sign of things to come.

But IMO it does not bode well for the long-term health of the American system.

Depends what the reaction of the american public is. Certainly in the electoral race I think the real tipping point was when the financial crisis broke and Obama was calm, mature and non partisan about it while McCain threw a massive, self indulgent hissy fit. The republicans' reputation is so utterly fvcked at the moment that they can bleat all they like and won't manage to make any charges of fiscal irresponsibility stick (with any moderates), so I'd imagine Obama's behaviour is going to go down with the voters a lot better.

If calm, progressive non partisan politics is shown to be the vote winner then long term a better class of politician will be attracted, after the last decade or two of bitter, divisive and negative campaigning carrying the day it's hardly surprising they've ended up with a load of screaming toddlers in the House at the moment.

 

[dteowner]

As I mentioned elsewhere, I figure the party is planning to reclaim their "fiscal responsibility" flag. The very nature of Barack's Keynesian stimulus is that you spend a whole buttload of money willy-nilly to break the spiral. What better way to claim the flag? In 4 years, the deficit (both budgetary and total federal debt) will be HUUUUUUGE (best Keynesian case is that we'll have broken out of the poo, but will barely be into the "start paying back" phase) and it will be child's play to claim the flag and beat the democrats to death with it. Just as y'all ran a "not Dubya" campaign this year, we'll be able to run a "not debt" campaign.

We'll see how "bi-partisan" goes for other issues, but I would expect anything related to federal spending will be a strict party-line affair from here on out.

 

[Squeek]

We could really use a time out in order to set aside our partisan differences, but we all know the likelihood of that happening. If both parties could rally behind an individual leader, each at the same time, then those two leaders could simply agree to set aside their party politics for a while for the good of the country.

Hey, didn't we just blow that opportunity? I distincly remember people rolling their eyes at that one not too long ago. Oh, well....

Like Obama says, we need to act as quickly as possible.

 

[magerette]

dte makes a solid point about that fiscal responsibility thing( better late than never) but I really think the core of the House dissent is the same mistake made by McCain/Palin--playing solely to their base. All the House Republicans come from blood red districts and came through the Democratic tsunami of the last few years, so they know who their constituents are, and I guess they feel no need to look for further support in the middle. When you have an elected Congressman forced by constituent outrage to apologize--even grovel--to Rush Limbaugh for offending him, you can pretty much tell where the opposition is coming from.

Part of it is also the usual bluster, posturing and playing politics--Boehner is famous for saying "They won't roll me." about the first TARP and then dissolving in tears trying to get his cohorts to join him in voting for it. The ones I've heard speak about the solutions they think are appropriate have made absolutely no sense to me at all: long video clip(sorry about commercial)

I expect the bill will get tweaked in the Senate, and the House elephants will then be able to vote for it by saying it's been improved. Or not. Either way, they are definitely defining their party and it's a definition that's going to haunt them in the years to come, even if dte's cynical prognostications all come true. Just standing in the ruins and pointing your finger at Obama when you did nothing to help is not going to be enough.

 

[dteowner]

We could really use a time out in order to set aside our partisan differences, but we all know the likelihood of that happening. If both parties could rally behind an individual leader, each at the same time, then those two leaders could simply agree to set aside their party politics for a while for the good of the country.

I have to admit that my party is too tattered and fragmented right now to supply such a leader. To be honest, I'm still not convinced the lefty old guard is ready to line up behind Obama on that side of the aisle, either. Under Dubya, Pelosi and Reid in particular were top bananas, leaders of the party and dictators of lefty policy. Are they really ready to play second fiddle to the junior senator from Chicago?

 

[dteowner]

Just standing in the ruins and pointing your finger at Obama when you did nothing to help is not going to be enough.

Standing in the ruins and pointing your finger at Dubya got Obama elected. Why wouldn't the formula work again?

 

[magerette]

I also think Obama's on his own in a lot of ways--could be good , could be bad. (Congress's joint approval is 20% or so for a reason.) I'd like to see both Pelosi and Reid fall by the way and get replaced by more effective leadership, but like the situation with the Republicans, leadership is hard to come by.

Edit; hang on you're typing too fast.

 

[magerette]

Standing in the ruins and pointing your finger at Dubya got Obama elected. Why wouldn't the formula work again?

A few reasons:
1. Obama is smarter than Bush.
2. More importantly, he's far more adept at conciliating, accommodating, and acting appropriately. Unless he loses his cool and gets the big head, the very high likelihood is that failures will be more likely laid at the doors of Congress and the opposition than his own.
3. I think he's laying the groundwork to be successful in a lot of other areas, like foreign policy, re-regulation and government accountability. The economy is such a big disaster right now, I think expectations of it being fixed quickly are low. If he succeeds elsewhere, and keeps his popularity and reputation for honesty, that may be enough to balance out a less than 100% improvement economy-wise.

Of course, he may blow it and turn out to be ineffective, arrogant and disingenuous, in which case, it will indeed be a "Not-Dubya" replay.


Edit: and maybe the most important reason: Obama got elected by being in touch with what the largest segment of the electorate wanted--not the lefties, though he was willing to listen to their side and use what he thought would work, and not the right despite reaching out to them now--and basing his pitch and policies on that. I don't see any indication of him losing that perspective yet, though of course, it could certainly happen--it's been what, a week?

 

[dteowner]

A few reasons:
1. Obama is smarter than Bush.
2. More importantly, he's far more adept at conciliating, accommodating, and acting appropriately. Unless he loses his cool and gets the big head, the very high likelihood is that failures will be more likely laid at the doors of Congress and the opposition than his own.
3. I think he's laying the groundwork to be successful in a lot of other areas, like foreign policy, re-regulation and government accountability. The economy is such a big disaster right now, I think expectations of it being fixed quickly are low. If he succeeds elsewhere, and keeps his popularity and reputation for honesty, that may be enough to balance out a less than 100% improvement economy-wise.

Of course, he may blow it and turn out to be ineffective, arrogant and disingenuous, in which case, it will indeed be a "Not-Dubya" replay.

1- OK, you've got me there
2- it was just a few posts back that a couple folks stated the cold shoulder Republicans gave Obama on this round would be the end of his bi-partisan effort. I tend to agree with that, so that's pretty much the end of Mr. Friendly Accomodation.
3- Possible, but Americans have high expectations and no patience. Obama's honeymoon with public opinion won't last too long as the unemployment lines continue to grow, even if those lines aren't his fault.

Edit: and maybe the most important reason: Obama got elected by being in touch with what the largest segment of the electorate wanted--

You mean, "free beer" or "class warfare"?

 

[dteowner]

Interesting how the lefty spin doctors have failed to mention a few pertinent details.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090129/pl_politico/18160

House Republicans have proposed an alternative that leaders say would create 6.2 million jobs for only $478 billion.

"What Member can't go back his or her District and explain: Rather than voting for a bloated bill, ... I voted for an alternative that would create twice the jobs at half the cost, and faster?" a House Republican leadership aide said. "That's why we didn't lose a single Republican and picked up 11 Democrats."

What's this? Perhaps this wasn't blind obstructionist politics after all?

Letters on the screen say: “Tell Congress to support the Obama Plan.” In addition to the liberal-labor coalition’s ad campaign, the Laborers union, which represents construction workers, is airing ads aimed at Grassley, Sen Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), and Sen. Jim Bunning (KY). The spots call on Congress to support the stimulus package.

Interesting. Since when have unions felt the need to advertise about politics? Perhaps Obama's package has something sweet in it for them? A little piggy payback for that help on election day?

House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence of Indiana. Pence sensed his members falling under Obama’s spell during their meeting Monday and brought them back by telling the President: “Know that we’re praying for you. … But know that there has been no negotiation [with us] on this bill – we had absolutely no say.”

Hows abouts that! Dat's my senator, there. I thought this was a hugs-n-kisses bipartisan effort. Perhaps Barack didn't reach across the aisle quite as much as the media would like us to believe?

Although a tactical triumph, the vote poses a risk to Republicans in the long run, with Democrats able to portray them as the party of "no" at a time when voters are hurting. Some House Republicans are likely to try to dilute the political risk by voting for the final version of the stimulus package after it passes the Senate.

Magerette made that wise call hours ago. Looks like the media finally got around to agreeing with her. Took em long enough.

 

[magerette]

..
2- it was just a few posts back that a couple folks stated the cold shoulder Republicans gave Obama on this round would be the end of his bi-partisan effort. I tend to agree with that, so that's pretty much the end of Mr. Friendly Accomodation.

Maybe, but if the Republican moderates(assuming there is such a thing) ever find their feet, this could change, I think. The Senate vote isn't even in yet, and I heard Tom Coburn is starting to look like a progressive.
We've got a ways to go before the jury's in, mostly because I'm banking on the basic survival instinct of all pols to hedge their bets.

3- Granted on the no patience/high expectations, but is anyone going to be talking a substantively better game? If all we hear is vouchers and free market and tax cuts from the Repubs, I don't see faith being automatically generated--it will be " Dubya Lite".

You mean, "free beer" or "class warfare"?

A little of both, (tho I think it's 'class defense') and some minor crap, like ending the Iraq war and getting government to be responsive to everyone, not just Halliburton, war contractors and those Wall St elite.

 

[magerette]

Saw these stories first thing today and they seemed to illustrate my "class defense" point above, so I'm being extra obnoxious and sharing:
Exxon Mobil Posts Record Profits

Exxon Mobil Corp. on Friday reported a profit of $45.2 billion for 2008, breaking its own record for a U.S. company, even as its fourth-quarter earnings fell 33 percent from a year ago.

What Red Ink? Wall St Paid Fat Bonuses

Despite crippling losses, multibillion-dollar bailouts and the passing of some of the most prominent names in the business, employees at financial companies in New York, the now-diminished world capital of capital, collected an estimated $18.4 billion in bonuses for the year.

That was the sixth-largest haul on record, according to a report released Wednesday by the New York State comptroller.

Homelessness Surges as Funding Falters

Shelters across the country report that more people are seeking emergency shelter and more are being turned away. In a report published in December, 330 school districts identified the same number or more homeless students in the first few months of the school year than they identified in the entire previous year. Meantime, demand is sharply up at soup kitchens, an indication of deepening hardship and potential homelessness.

This is far from the whole story of course, but a rather stark word-picture of where our drift has been as a nation in the last decade.

 

[Benedict]

In fairness to Exxon Mobil the first half of the year had ludicrously inflated margins on oil and an incredibly weak dollar to make all those profits flowing home extra tasty, I'm not nearly as annoyed by their profits as I am by the bankers bonuses. The only possible excuse of needing to pay to retain talent has become utterly discredited now that there's endless good people out of a job through no fault of their own, the dynamics have changed completely.

 

[dteowner]

Anyone see the kick in the nuts Shell took in the 4th quarter? Almost $3B in 3 months, due to the drop in oil prices and stronger dollars (just like Benedict mentioned). I wonder if the oil company CEO's should request an apology from the congressmen that read them the riot act during the summer. It'd take Senator Byrd a couple days to blow that kind of loot, which is saying something.

 

[dteowner]

Perhaps we can get some insight from our financial sector insider, bn, but I do wonder if a fair bit of those bonuses (bonii?) are that industry's equivalent of sales commissions. Waiters/waitresses often work for $2/hr + tips; might many of these financial guys be on a similar "low base + bonus" system?

I expect there's some serious greed in there, but I'm not quite ready to believe it's 100% thievery.