that only works if you invest AFTER the crash. If he throws a bunch of money into index funds TODAY and then the crash occurs in 6 months… At least in the USA the index is inflated.
As for your article those are horrible returns. If he had turned 6K into 1million over 30+ years then it would have been almost ok (as a reference i had xxxx 20 years). However, for his total investment of 128K and given the length of the investments he had absolutely horrible returns.
However, if you are happy with those returns AND the overly trump inflated market still allows you those sort of returns then follow caddy advice. My concern is that (at least in USA) things have been warped with complete lack of oversight the past year and htere is the potential (not a given) of a massive crash in the next 6 to 18 months.
No clue how (or if) this will impact the global markets.
Yes, we know they were horrible returns, because the point of the article was he was investing at the worst possible times. But we are talking about relativity here, my friend. Tell me how much of that $128,000 he lost in the end, when he retired? Even with his "poor" returns, he still beat close to 9/10 mutual funds over the long term.
And even by your example, someone were to invest all their money right now, and the market crashed in a few months, you wait it out. Look at this example:
That little red circle marking the blip on the graph is the "awful scary" 2008 financial crisis (it would be even more impressive if I had up to 2018 on there). Even the Great Depression on that graph would give you a decent return if you "only" invested a few thousand just before, as a young adult, and then retired 40 years later. But realistically, who's going to invest a few thousand dollars for their retirement during their entire 40 working years? You max out your contribution limits every year. You max out your tax returns, you put away funds monthly, you use side gigs and windfalls to fund your retirement.
The US stock market isn't like in Canada, where if 1 big company dissolves, then you loose 70% of the market, unless you're under the impression that the S&P 500 somehow only counts for parts of companies within the continental US. It reflects the world as a whole. The Trump argument, just isn't a strong argument. Every year, financial advisors that get paid on their ability to sell you a long term under performing mutual fund have a new excuse about why index funds are a bad idea. They've been doing it for decades now, and most of them still can't beat the market. It's a joke.
Also, to add to above, this is also why you invest part of your investment in the international market as well as bonds (if you're in Canada, it's a bit of US, International and Canadian indexes as well as bonds).