Thoughts on Peak Oil

[magerette]

Then go ahead and buy one.

[ http://www.smartusa.com/ ]

Actually that's a very reasonable price. I think we have probably bought our last vehicles though. Both are finally paid for, have decent fuel economy(by older standards but we don't drive much) and will probably suffice til we are starving on our Soc Sec and either can't afford to drive anyway, or our caretakers are hiding the car keys from us.

I actually saw one of these in town the other day--so at least some people even here in redneckland are switching.

 

[Prime Junta]

Funny, that, dte... your EPA regulations are less strict than what we have in Europe, yet we manage to keep our power grid juiced up just fine. Curious, isn't it?

 

[dteowner]

All that says is that your usage-to-production ratio is currently favorable where ours is not, Mr. Hawkings. Nothing to do with new construction, or the lack thereof. Y'all are a little more accepting of nuclear power than us, as well. Compare densities, as well as total numbers here.

 

[blatantninja]

It also doesn't help that if we even THINK about building a new nuke plant, the super-enviro-facists are out in force. EPA isn't holding that back, it's politicians and fear mongers that are.

 

[dteowner]

Then go ahead and buy one.

[ http://www.smartusa.com/ ]

Could be a little crowded with the Wild Dogs. I'd have to tie them to the bumper and make them run behind.

Hmmmmm....

 

[curiously undead]

hey blatantninja actually most people don't want spent fuel rods stored in their backyards. do you have a few thousand acres in your backyard you're willing to house them in? i'm sure it will be grand for your property value
even people who live in the middle of the desert (ie nevada) have fought it every step of the way. and that is usually full of those oh so enviornmentally facist --republicans.

oh and ever heard of the word halflife, sadly most people (even google!) probably associate it with a mute scientist who kills people.

fear mongers...oh because the governments should be giving billions of dollars in subsidies to good ol' 'safe' nuclear power instead of investing in 'renewable' endeavors?

 

[dteowner]

The kW produced per dollar spent is better for nuclear than it is for your renewables. It's a simple business decision that's totally voided by political issues. That solar farm I hinted at a while back? The structural tubing alone was going to be tens of millions. What a deal, and how many kW is that going to produce if we have a cloudy day?

I'm not sure how you hope to pull off slamming "subsidies" and encouraging "investing" in the same sentence.

 

[DoddTheSlayer]

Peak Oil was an issue that came to my attention back in 2004 and i have been following it ever since.
I personally believe that this is a pending crises of jhuge proportions because polititions are afraid to state the situation as it really is.
We simply are not doing enough to deal with the situation when it arises and i am afraid that polititions ae going to continue to lie to us because the simple truth is that you cannot win elections by telling westoners that the party is over and we are all just going to have to make do with less from now on.
Oil is the the greatest empire the the world has ever known and in terms of human history it is a very short epoch.
There is currently no combination of alternatives that will produce the equivilent of the energy we get from 80 million barrels of oil per day and that figure is going to fall while world demand increases with hugely populated developing countries like China and India increasingly wanting a slice of the American dream
I wonder if this planet can sustain 6.5 Billion people for much longer.

Here is a link to an article that you all might find interesting:

http://globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/218

It's kind of old news but a very good article for bringing anyone up to speed who is not fully aware of what it's all about

Recommended Documentaries on the subject include.

The End of Suburbia. (Peak oil and the collapse of the American dream)

A Crude Awakening. (The oil crash)
Featuring interviews with M. King Hubbert. the man who first alerted the world to the concept of peak oil.

 

[curiously undead]

i really can't understand how corporate lovers don't galvanize to renewables. eventually they will but greed goggles have always been worse than beer goggles. by tapping, heat, solar, wind, water(hydro and waves) the investors have an unlimited supply to live fat on for their entire progenys existence. its the attitude of the penny pinching or "hoarding" rich that love money so much though they aren't willing to go on a diet for a little while while they have to absorb the yes "massive" amounts of money it would cost to implement them. but once the network is up and running. the only real problem is that this also goes against the supply and demand sham that is economics (and before you call me an ignorant boob i studied managerial economics for 2+ years). if renewables were tapped prices would be fixed and all though that means a steady bank account for the investors, record profits would not exist and that doesn't give enough investors hardons to implement them.

also last time i checked a solar plant farm or a valley full of wind turbines weren't LARGE risks for terrorist attacks.
"but hey lets build more nuclear power and do some fear mongering of our own which will help us to further induce a police state and justify taking away more of those safety whiners rights, hurrah!"

 

[DoddTheSlayer]

The problem with alternatives is that if we don't start using what energy we have left from oil to implement them then we are not going to be able to to do so when it comes to the crunch.
Too much oil is being used to fight wars in an attempt to secure what is left.
It seems clear to me that the west is commited to oil and it is going to become impossible for life in a democratic society to continue because of the atrocities that human greed will lead to.
There has not been a day of peace on the earth since the oil era began and i see no reason for that to suddenly change.
I believe that there are those who would rather find a way of reducing world population as a solution to the problem rather than change and make do with less.

Speculation i know, but what else can we think when so little is being done in the direction of a greener planet ?

 

[blatantninja]

hey blatantninja actually most people don't want spent fuel rods stored in their backyards. do you have a few thousand acres in your backyard you're willing to house them in? i'm sure it will be grand for your property value
even people who live in the middle of the desert (ie nevada) have fought it every step of the way. and that is usually full of those oh so enviornmentally facist --republicans.

Oh there is no doubt that people fight he disposal and it gets nasty (being from Texas and the proposed west Texas sites, I know all about it!), but that isn't what seems to stop them from building the new ones. They had a meeting to discuss a new one for NYC (way outside of course), and people we up in arms all over the place here! (Ohh and I have no backyard!)

oh and ever heard of the word halflife, sadly most people (even google!) probably associate it with a mute scientist who kills people.

It's completely containable and measurable, so I don't see much of a problem. Even if we generated 100% of our electricity from nukes over the next 100 years, the amount of waste would take up a miniscule amount of space.

fear mongers...oh because the governments should be giving billions of dollars in subsidies to good ol' 'safe' nuclear power instead of investing in 'renewable' endeavors?

Since most 'renewable' endevours are theoretical at best in their potential or only partial solutions (like solar, great technology, but you have to store it and that many batteries are far worse than nukes), yes. It's a proven, safe technology. But again, it should be part of the solution, just like wind, solar, etc. We should be funding ALL of them.

 

[Prime Junta]

It also doesn't help that if we even THINK about building a new nuke plant, the super-enviro-facists are out in force. EPA isn't holding that back, it's politicians and fear mongers that are.

I've always thought it kinda ironic that you're completely cool about sitting on a stockpile of nuclear bombs big enough to turn the planet into a fluorescing glass parking lot, but aren't able to use the same tech and same stuff to produce electricity. I think that's gonna change, though. A decade or two back, Sweden passed a law to phase out nuclear energy; they've quietly gone back on that.

 

[Prime Junta]

hey blatantninja actually most people don't want spent fuel rods stored in their backyards. do you have a few thousand acres in your backyard you're willing to house them in? i'm sure it will be grand for your property value

If all the electricity you used during your lifetime was produced by nuclear power, the waste produced would fit in a beer can. Sure, it's nasty, but it's far, far less nasty than coal, and currently it's the only other technology that we have that'll scale up indefinitely.

oh and ever heard of the word halflife, sadly most people (even google!) probably associate it with a mute scientist who kills people.

Have you ever heard of accelerator-driven subcritical nuclear reactors? Thought not.

fear mongers...oh because the governments should be giving billions of dollars in subsidies to good ol' 'safe' nuclear power instead of investing in 'renewable' endeavors?

Unfortunately, renewable energy can't, by itself, with current technology and the current timescale, get the job done. The more we can use of it, the better, but we will need either nukes or coal, or both, as well. Of these two, nukes are the lesser evil by far.

 

[Prime Junta]

The kW produced per dollar spent is better for nuclear than it is for your renewables. It's a simple business decision that's totally voided by political issues. That solar farm I hinted at a while back? The structural tubing alone was going to be tens of millions. What a deal, and how many kW is that going to produce if we have a cloudy day?

By the way, I just came across a brilliant solution to that -- replace the mirrors in a solar plant with half-Mylar, half clear plastic balloons strung on wires that adjust their position. They'll work as parabolic reflectors. Not quite as efficient as aluminum mirrors, for sure, but you can make 1,000 times the surface area per dollar, and the entire power plant will fit on the back of a truck.

Ain't innovation cool?

 

[Prime Junta]

"but hey lets build more nuclear power and do some fear mongering of our own which will help us to further induce a police state and justify taking away more of those safety whiners rights, hurrah!"

IIRC France produces about 80% of its electricity with nuclear power. So does Japan. They're not police states, last I checked.

 

[Prime Junta]

Since most 'renewable' endevours are theoretical at best in their potential or only partial solutions (like solar, great technology, but you have to store it and that many batteries are far worse than nukes), yes. It's a proven, safe technology. But again, it should be part of the solution, just like wind, solar, etc. We should be funding ALL of them.

Actually, there are alternative ways to store solar energy that are quite clean and at least as efficient as batteries. For example:

(1) Take one depleted oil or natural gas field. Build solar plant on top. Take excess power produced by plant to run electric pump to pump air into field. Install a valve, turbine, and generator into another drill hole, and block up the rest. Open valve to run turbine with the pressurized air, to power generator to produce electricity as required.

(2) Build your solar power plant by the seashore. Use excess electricity to run electrolysis on seawater. Collect hydrogen. To produce electricity, burn it in a fuel cell or conventional furnace... or sell it off to power vehicles.

 

[Prime Junta]

By the way, I think it's interesting how this oil price spike has brought out the different ways Americans and (some) Europeans deal with problems like this. Americans are dumping their SUV's and buying scooters, whereas Europeans are striking and demanding that the government Do Something(tm) about it.

In this case, the Americans have it right. Striking about fuel prices, or demanding that the government lower fuel taxes or institute price caps, won't help. Reducing consumption will. Lowering the price through dropping taxes or instituting subsidies will drive up consumption, which will raise the price right where it was -- only the money will be going to furnish King Abdullah's personal Airbus A380, rather than pay for the national treasury.

I believe this difference in reactions illustrates a lot about our differences. Euros demand more of their government, and generally get more too -- many if not most European countries are better governed, with better infrastructure, better social services, and so on. (OK, there's Italy, but that's a different story.) Conversely, Americans adapt better to sudden changes in circumstances -- and the result is a more flexible, more dynamic, more productive economy.

The Holy Grail would be to somehow combine the two -- American dynamism, flexibility, quickness to adopt new innovations, and European standards for good government. I wonder how that could happen?

 

[Corwin]

It already has, it's called Australia!!

 

[Zaleukos]

We dont really have any public cries for the government to do anything about the situation (the price rise is somewhat cushioned by the low dollar and since most of the price is tax anyway the margin effect is much lower than in the US, pump prices have gone up 15% or so in a year), but nevertheless our brilliant rulers have hinted at (IMHO populistic) reductions of the petrol tax...

 

[VPeric]

and currently it's [nuclear power] the only other technology that we have that'll scale up indefinitely.

Do correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the supply of uranium is limited? Actually, I read recently about some Japanese projects that "pick it up" from the ocean (basicaly wait for the uranium to come to the shore), but even with that method, we're limited (by quanitity _and_ speed).