With the holiday insanity behind me, I took a moment today to read up on how Windows 8 is selling. From the top 5 google articles I came across, it looks like it is not doing too well. Microsoft claims they've sold 60m licenses. But skeptics question the details: How may of those licenses have been installed on actual machines versus sitting on retailer shelves or otherwise not being used. Microsoft is mum on this emboldening the skeptics views.
While all this is intersting to read about - for me personally, I don't really care about much of the chattering by the pundits. I've never been one to carry any company's technology flag. If Microsoft puts out an O/S that provides the kind of experience I'm looking for and runs applications I'm interested in then I'll get a Microsoft product. If it's Apple then I'd get an Apple. I really don't care who the manufacturer is. When Intellivision's graphics became second to the Atari 7800 I didn't care becasue I was more interested in the kinds of games on the Intellivision than the 7800. When it became hip and cool to bash Microsoft I refrained. Now it's hip and cool to bash Apple and again, I don't care. What I care about is, 'what can it do for me that I'm interested in?'
Windows 8 is the first MS O/S I didn't buy within the first few weeks of its release. In fact, I happened to notice it by accident on the shelf at a computer store in December and thought to myself, 'wow, it came out and I didn't even know.' That's a remarkable thing considering I went to the midnight release of Win95 and happily made lots of lemonade out of all the Windows ME and Vista lemons. When I think to myself why I know only a little about the goings-on of Windows 8, it's because for me it just doesn't have anything to offer that Win7 doesn't alerady deliver. In fact, for me, Win8 wants to trivialize my desktop and that's probably my biggest problem with it. It's kind of the same reason I haven't run out and bought a Wii U - I don't see anything about it (yet) sufficiently compelling to move on from my Wii.
From my admittedly little knowledge of Win8 - it seems to be focusing on non-computer users - let me explain what I mean:
Back in the 80s and 90s computers were NOT mainstream consumer devices. They were expensive and counterintuitive. And they were also fairly unreliable and when they broke it was a nightmare to troubleshoot - it's easier now with the internet but before the internet it could be a nightmare to find out about a single piece of information about your motherboard or anything else inside your computer. And when you did finally figure out the problem you were told to go to a rented hotel ballroom where the apparently just-started-up-hardware-company setup a makeshift warehouse where you could pick up a 3.5" floppy disc with the driver you needed - yes, that happened to me. Twice. True story.
In general, consumers did not associate a computer with any kind of need or want. So computers mostly stayed in the realm of the business/industry environment. Then there was that small nitch of 'nerd' consumers (like me) who very early on recognized that great gaming could be had on these machines and that's where it started for me - though it didn't end with that. As a young adult I was able to recognize computer solutions for small companies I worked in and became as excited about productivity software as I was about gaming.
As the 90s came to a close, computer technology had advanced sufficiently enough to introduce 4 things that would ultimatley draw in the masses (the non-computer users - for lack of a better term). These four things are:
- The web (which would also eventually include the almighty powerful social media services like the evil MySpace - oh how I hate you MySpace I could never get my employees off of that damn service)
- Email
- Photos/Videos
- Music.
As a result, laptops and desktop sales soared through much of the 2000s as all these non-computer users came to love their computers for basically these 4 things.
Now we are in the smartphone and tablet era. These devices are perfect for 'The Big 4' and to boot allow you to do these 4 things on the go. And so the masses are transitioning to those devices more and more. But in my view, the masses who are interested mostly in just these 4 things are not and never were 'computer users.'
Computer users are people who:
-Game (and not the shallow gaming found in app stores - as much as I can get distracted by angry birds when I'm waiting for my kids' taekwondo class to end - it's only entertaining in brief stints, but real gaming like Gothic 2 gaming)
-Use Productivity software from spreadsheets to C++ to word processing to database creation to CAD/CAM to photoshop to you name it.
-Use Professional Industrial Based applications from MRP systems to archetecture to the medical industry to making sure the satellites don't fall from the sky.
And the market for desktop sales is now shrinking back to what it really should be - the market for computer users - which still includes businesses and industry but now, to a lesser degree (though NOT insignificant), consumers.
I think MS (and pundits alike - there are many 'PCs are dying' priests and priestesses out there) might be making a mistake with viewing shrinking desktop sales as a sign that perhaps desktops are going the way of the dinasour.
However, I personally cannot imagine doing any serious gaming or work on a tablet. That might change in the future, but right now I woudn't even consider doing a major spreadsheet project on a machine where I had to use my fingers for the inputs - that kind of inputing would add an unreasonable amount of time to complete the project. I might as well go back to writing a paper by hand instead of typing one at 100 words per minute. In short, the market prophets seem to be creating a self-fullfilling prophecy that desktops are dead while at the same time there is this glaring absence to recreate or better the desktop efficiencies (big screen, crazy fast processing speeds, lots of hard drive space, mouse, keyboard to name the easy ones right off the top of my head).
So while smartphones and tablets are all the rage, espeically by the non-computer users who always were non-computer users despite their brief flirtation with desktops/laptops for a time, there is still a sizeable demographic of people like me, who use computers for a lot more than just web, email, photos/videos, and music.
While smartphones and tablets have their uses, the small screens, lackluster speeds and finger inputting are absolutely NOT better (from a computer user perspective) or more efficient than my 27" screen, i7 processor, mouse, and keyboard. For a computer user, the tile layout is absolutley NOT more efficient than a desktop layout. And now that I am given a real choice of one over the other, I really want nothing to do with a trivalized desktop when I already have a Win7 desktop that is quite awesome.
So when I look at Win8, I see an O/S that wasn't really designed for me. It's designed first and foremost for the non-computer users. A tile layout works for my mom, grandma, and the cool hipster high school kids and adults that never grew up who live out their lives mostly on Facebook. But for me, it's clunky and inefficient. And that's why for the first time I probably will not ever buy this O/S. And that's the first MS O/S I will ever have NOT purchased.
While all this is intersting to read about - for me personally, I don't really care about much of the chattering by the pundits. I've never been one to carry any company's technology flag. If Microsoft puts out an O/S that provides the kind of experience I'm looking for and runs applications I'm interested in then I'll get a Microsoft product. If it's Apple then I'd get an Apple. I really don't care who the manufacturer is. When Intellivision's graphics became second to the Atari 7800 I didn't care becasue I was more interested in the kinds of games on the Intellivision than the 7800. When it became hip and cool to bash Microsoft I refrained. Now it's hip and cool to bash Apple and again, I don't care. What I care about is, 'what can it do for me that I'm interested in?'
Windows 8 is the first MS O/S I didn't buy within the first few weeks of its release. In fact, I happened to notice it by accident on the shelf at a computer store in December and thought to myself, 'wow, it came out and I didn't even know.' That's a remarkable thing considering I went to the midnight release of Win95 and happily made lots of lemonade out of all the Windows ME and Vista lemons. When I think to myself why I know only a little about the goings-on of Windows 8, it's because for me it just doesn't have anything to offer that Win7 doesn't alerady deliver. In fact, for me, Win8 wants to trivialize my desktop and that's probably my biggest problem with it. It's kind of the same reason I haven't run out and bought a Wii U - I don't see anything about it (yet) sufficiently compelling to move on from my Wii.
From my admittedly little knowledge of Win8 - it seems to be focusing on non-computer users - let me explain what I mean:
Back in the 80s and 90s computers were NOT mainstream consumer devices. They were expensive and counterintuitive. And they were also fairly unreliable and when they broke it was a nightmare to troubleshoot - it's easier now with the internet but before the internet it could be a nightmare to find out about a single piece of information about your motherboard or anything else inside your computer. And when you did finally figure out the problem you were told to go to a rented hotel ballroom where the apparently just-started-up-hardware-company setup a makeshift warehouse where you could pick up a 3.5" floppy disc with the driver you needed - yes, that happened to me. Twice. True story.
In general, consumers did not associate a computer with any kind of need or want. So computers mostly stayed in the realm of the business/industry environment. Then there was that small nitch of 'nerd' consumers (like me) who very early on recognized that great gaming could be had on these machines and that's where it started for me - though it didn't end with that. As a young adult I was able to recognize computer solutions for small companies I worked in and became as excited about productivity software as I was about gaming.
As the 90s came to a close, computer technology had advanced sufficiently enough to introduce 4 things that would ultimatley draw in the masses (the non-computer users - for lack of a better term). These four things are:
- The web (which would also eventually include the almighty powerful social media services like the evil MySpace - oh how I hate you MySpace I could never get my employees off of that damn service)
- Photos/Videos
- Music.
As a result, laptops and desktop sales soared through much of the 2000s as all these non-computer users came to love their computers for basically these 4 things.
Now we are in the smartphone and tablet era. These devices are perfect for 'The Big 4' and to boot allow you to do these 4 things on the go. And so the masses are transitioning to those devices more and more. But in my view, the masses who are interested mostly in just these 4 things are not and never were 'computer users.'
Computer users are people who:
-Game (and not the shallow gaming found in app stores - as much as I can get distracted by angry birds when I'm waiting for my kids' taekwondo class to end - it's only entertaining in brief stints, but real gaming like Gothic 2 gaming)
-Use Productivity software from spreadsheets to C++ to word processing to database creation to CAD/CAM to photoshop to you name it.
-Use Professional Industrial Based applications from MRP systems to archetecture to the medical industry to making sure the satellites don't fall from the sky.
And the market for desktop sales is now shrinking back to what it really should be - the market for computer users - which still includes businesses and industry but now, to a lesser degree (though NOT insignificant), consumers.
I think MS (and pundits alike - there are many 'PCs are dying' priests and priestesses out there) might be making a mistake with viewing shrinking desktop sales as a sign that perhaps desktops are going the way of the dinasour.
However, I personally cannot imagine doing any serious gaming or work on a tablet. That might change in the future, but right now I woudn't even consider doing a major spreadsheet project on a machine where I had to use my fingers for the inputs - that kind of inputing would add an unreasonable amount of time to complete the project. I might as well go back to writing a paper by hand instead of typing one at 100 words per minute. In short, the market prophets seem to be creating a self-fullfilling prophecy that desktops are dead while at the same time there is this glaring absence to recreate or better the desktop efficiencies (big screen, crazy fast processing speeds, lots of hard drive space, mouse, keyboard to name the easy ones right off the top of my head).
So while smartphones and tablets are all the rage, espeically by the non-computer users who always were non-computer users despite their brief flirtation with desktops/laptops for a time, there is still a sizeable demographic of people like me, who use computers for a lot more than just web, email, photos/videos, and music.
While smartphones and tablets have their uses, the small screens, lackluster speeds and finger inputting are absolutely NOT better (from a computer user perspective) or more efficient than my 27" screen, i7 processor, mouse, and keyboard. For a computer user, the tile layout is absolutley NOT more efficient than a desktop layout. And now that I am given a real choice of one over the other, I really want nothing to do with a trivalized desktop when I already have a Win7 desktop that is quite awesome.
So when I look at Win8, I see an O/S that wasn't really designed for me. It's designed first and foremost for the non-computer users. A tile layout works for my mom, grandma, and the cool hipster high school kids and adults that never grew up who live out their lives mostly on Facebook. But for me, it's clunky and inefficient. And that's why for the first time I probably will not ever buy this O/S. And that's the first MS O/S I will ever have NOT purchased.
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