Latest US Election Poll: Who's Got Your Vote if the Election Were Held Tomorrow

[blatantninja]

Some breaking news--not very complete at time of posting, but apparently they've arrested someone for threatening to assassinate Obama:

Man Held in Florida For Threatening Obama's Life

I seriously fear for his life if he gets elected, especially if Hillary ends up the VP nominee (which it appears not likely now). There are just too many ignorant racists that won't be able to handle a black President. And if Hilllary is VP, there are enough militant feminists that would see nothing wrong with taking out Obama to fulfill their dream of a female President.

 

[magerette]

I seriously fear for his life if he gets elected, especially if Hillary ends up the VP nominee (which it appears not likely now). There are just too many ignorant racists that won't be able to handle a black President. And if Hilllary is VP, there are enough militant feminists that would see nothing wrong with taking out Obama to fulfill their dream of a female President.

As this story develops, the guy looks like a blowhard more than anything, but you never know. I also think the Secret Service will have their hands full with an O presidency should it come to pass.I don't know about the militant feminist assassins coming out in force though--mostly they just seem to whine a lot, not collect armor-piercing ammo and sniper rifles. ( Now Hillary herself slipping something into the WH coffeepot...that's another story. )

 

[blatantninja]

As this story develops, the guy looks like a blowhard more than anything, but you never know. I also think the Secret Service will have their hands full with an O presidency should it come to pass.I don't know about the militant feminist assassins coming out in force though--mostly they just seem to whine a lot, not collect armor-piercing ammo and sniper rifles. ( Now Hillary herself slipping something into the WH coffeepot...that's another story. )

I don't know. I've met some pretty scary feminists at the gym!

 

[Prime Junta]

Amazing PJ, I agree with absolutely everything you said here!

You do realize that no Republican administration would pursue a policy even remotely like it, I hope?

 

[magerette]

I don't know. I've met some pretty scary feminists at the gym!

Could it be perhaps you were, er...admiring them a bit too obviously?(well, you do have 'blatant' in your screen-name) Just sayin--that can provoke serious feminist wrath even in normally docile females.

 

[blatantninja]

You do realize that no Republican administration would pursue a policy even remotely like it, I hope?

I don't know about that. A more centrist one would. You could say the same thing about most democratic administrations as well. Clinton moved very heavily to the center though during his presidency. I don't see anyone that had even a remote shot at the white house from the Democratic side this election that would pursue a policy like that.

 

[blatantninja]

Could it be perhaps you were, er...admiring them a bit too obviously?(well, you do have 'blatant' in your screen-name) Just sayin--that can provoke serious feminist wrath even in normally docile females.

Trust me. I have LOW standards, but even I was not 'admiring' these 'ladies.'

You ever take a stroll around Texas Women's University?

 

[magerette]

Trust me. I have LOW standards, but even I was not 'admiring' these 'ladies.'

You ever take a stroll around Texas Women's University?

Gotcha. I was going to say something about the traditional cowboy Cattle Call, but I figure I've probably offended enough people today.

 

[blatantninja]

Eh, what's one more?

 

[dteowner]

Sorta back on topic, interesting article about the new direction of the campaigns. Looks like boths side are saying "Don't vote for that other guy." instead of saying "Vote for me."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080811/ap_on_el_pr/candidates_ads_5

I notice that the Obama camp is trying real hard to turn it into a Bush referendum, which is solid tactics if a bit disingenuous. I seem to remember taking a beating for making that accusation several weeks ago.

 

[magerette]

What was I beating you up on again? With so many threads, I forget.

I find all the ads equally frivolous and stupid actually. The fact that they're so effective amongst what someone referred to as "the knuckle-dragging troglodytes" among us is what's scary to me.

I'm waiting for the first debate to see if some actual issues surface.

Then there's the VP selection. Read an interesting comment on a blog the other night. Someone had been talking to some friends who were independents and among the undecided I was trying to find with this poll--anyway they were going to base their decision, apparently, on who picked the best VP, betting that the possibilities for McCain keeling over in office or Obama being assassinated made it the top priority. I don't recall that factor in any previous election, but I have to admit it makes a certain amount of sense.

 

[blatantninja]

I find all the ads equally frivolous and stupid actually. The fact that they're so effective amongst what someone referred to as "the knuckle-dragging troglodytes" among us is what's scary to me.

That's exactly why I don't think just because you have a pulse, you should have the right to vote. There need to be qualifications.

Then there's the VP selection. Read an interesting comment on a blog the other night. Someone had been talking to some friends who were independents and among the undecided I was trying to find with this poll--anyway they were going to base their decision, apparently, on who picked the best VP, betting that the possibilities for McCain keeling over in office or Obama being assassinated made it the top priority. I don't recall that factor in any previous election, but I have to admit it makes a certain amount of sense.

IIRC it was a bit of an issue in Reagan's re-election bid. Not that there was any doubt that Bush was going to be the VP, but just that people felt, discretely, that if Bush took over, he'd continue on what Reagan was doing. Granted I was 9 when that went on, but I remember my Dad talking about it.

It does seem a priority issue this time. Personally, I think either candidate is probably a one termer simply due to the economy they will be inheriting.

 

[Prime Junta]

It does seem a priority issue this time. Personally, I think either candidate is probably a one termer simply due to the economy they will be inheriting.

Actually, I sorta think the opposite. The economy is in bad shape, but I don't think the recession is going to last four years. That means that in 2012 the US economy should be in full-on recovery mode, which would bode well for the incumbent.

 

[blatantninja]

I wish I shared your optimism! I'm not a complete pessimist, but given how much mortgage related mess is still to come (largest number of resets in residential to occur in September, CMBS still hasn't hit but has the same structure, just originated later) plus the areas that have been just devastated will take more than 4 years to recover. I think in a lot of areas it will resemble Texas after the Oil Bust. It took about a decade for a lot of parts to recover.

The real key for the next four years will be determined by how much inflation or deflation we see over the next 12 months.

 

[dteowner]

It does seem a priority issue this time. Personally, I think either candidate is probably a one termer simply due to the economy they will be inheriting.

I agree that McCain would be a one-n-done, simply because the public can't stand more than 12 years under the same party. 8 years is actually a stretch, IMO. I could see Obama and the donkeys pouring enough free beer to get re-elected even if the economy continues to sputter.

 

[Prime Junta]

The problem with that scenario is that the keg's nearly empty. Free beer is only available as long as the rest of the world is ready to keep the tab open, and that era seems to be ending. The next administration will have to either straighten out the triple deficit, or face a collapse of the dollar and economic Armageddon.

 

[magerette]

It's hard to tell what the pattern would be for 2012. (Like 2008 is easy...) The only sure thing is that Hillary will run.

I think the economy of course is on top of everyone's list, but after this Georgia/Russia thing, I don't think we can pretend to look at the world as it is and say Iraq/ Afghanistan is all we're going to have to face abroad in the next few years either. How a new Cold War era(as Prime J speculated on in another thread) or increasing global instability over energy sources wherever they may be found, will impact the next four years is a big unknown, but I doubt it will help either party govern and maintain popularity.

IOW, the dems may have to do a lot more than pour their free beer, and the repubs may have to do more than rattle empty scabbards and utter stern pronouncements about "never surrendering" and so forth to get through without a total meltdown here and abroad of the relatively stable period of peace and prosperity we've been experiencing since the end of WWII.

Sometimes I'm glad I'm old.

 

[blatantninja]

I'm not entirely sure of that PJ. While I understand the point you are making, our debt/GDP isn't even close to being as large it has been in the past. Additionally, when the economy sputters domestically, people shift more into Treasuries, and overseas, when there is turmoil, we see an inflow of capital buying Treasuries because it is considered the safest investment in the world. True that China is pretty high in the debt they own of ours, but if they see an economic downturn (which it looks like they will IMO), a lot more private money there will be chasing Treasuries.

So long as faith in the US government doesn't collapse (not saying it can't), I think there is still room to grow the debt significantly.

Not saying I want that. Not at all, just that it is economically feasible.

 

[Prime Junta]

Now who's the optimist?

 

[blatantninja]

It happens occasionally. Do they have meds for that?